🔗 Share this article

Just two months ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or the source of the side's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Challengers?

This is a rather hard query to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, while the wins have accumulated.

Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side that have put together 10 in a row, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more versus Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho might become the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial England player.

The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.